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| Photo by Derek Story on Unsplash |
Yesterday, the biggest news of the season broke: Fernando Tatis would be suspended for 80 games. Naturally, I had, and continue to have questions, so let's dive in:
What is his re-draft value going into next year? This year, we thought there were a fair number of questions surrounding many of the superstars in the league. We didn't know how healthy Mike Trout was, whether Mookie Betts could get past his hip issues, and how Fernando Tatis would recover from his wrist injury. Oh, and there were questions with Ronald Acuna, as well, and his recovery from a torn ACL.
It looks like we will go into next year with many of the same questions. Mike Trout was diagnosed with a degenerative back condition. Mookie Betts looks like he's in an outlier season, from a health perspective. Ronald Acuna is not the same player he was prior to the injury. And our friend, Fernando, is going to go into next season with some heavy baggage. He's the riskiest of the bunch because, in addition to health issues, he hasn't quite shown the maturity that most of us expect the face of baseball to carry. Why? Because his -- and only his -- poor decisions are the reasons he isn't playing baseball for a full calendar year. But as we will get to below, I think this is effectively the "rock-bottom" moment that Tatis and the Padres need in order to right this ship. I am all in on Tatis for next season and think, while you should wait as long as you can, you shouldn't wait too long. If I am drafting at the back of round 1, I take him. But I don't let him slip past the middle of round 2. In a game of upside, he has it and he has the most of it. He's the top overall player in the game when heathy.
What is his dynasty value right now? The lowest it will ever be, but I still don't think many owners will be willing to move him. I wouldn't, unless the haul was significant. He's still a top-15 player for me, notwithstanding his health and maturity issues. I don't think you need to sell low if you hold him in a dynasty league. There is, of course, the fatigue that comes with owning any player because, let's face it, outside of a very few players, each of them come with their own headaches, injuries, and streakiness. That's baseball. Fernando Tatis has been a 5-category contributor and nothing has happened that will change that outlook. Don't sell low. If you're just tired of him and want to trade him, now is not the time. Your season is almost over. Wait until the off-season and he does well in Spring Training. Be a little more patient. And also know someone in your league is going to be very curious about owning Tatis and will likely make a first offer, with a little more time and separation from this moment, that will get the job done.
Was his previous performance real? This was one of my first thoughts, actually. Although this was his first positive test, there really isn't any way to know whether or not he was relying on performance enhancing drugs in the past. It's certainly possible, particularly thanks to stealth tactics such as microdosing. Unfortunately, we just don't know and have no way of knowing. My guess, however, is that no, he wasn't using because up until recently, he probably had no reason to do so. It was only recently, because of the wrist injury, that would have given him a clear reason to seek out a shortcut.
What about that shoulder injury? Let's be clear, injuries do not tend to heal miraculously. My knees won't magically grow articular cartilage if I "rest" long enough. Fernando Tatis will continue to have shoulder issues, regardless of whether he has surgery or not. But I am prepared to make a two-fold argument here. The first is that the ban is actually the best thing for the health of his shoulder. The second is that the team's mistrust of him will mean that he's going to have to be more accountable to the team. That accountability means proving his health, being proximal to the team, rehabbing at their facilities, and so forth. I think, as unfortunate as this situation is for fantasy baseball owners, it is the "reset" button for Tatis and his going-forward outlook.
Who can I add right now to replace him? The good news is that, if you made it this far and you're still reading baseball articles, you have survived without Tatis making a single contribution for your team (other than, potentially, the hubris that comes with knowing that you were going to active him off the IL for the stretch run). The bad news is that you will not find any player who has anywhere near the upside that Tatis carries. Own it and accept it. So, who can help you get most of the way there? My advice would be to ride the wave of the hottest players you can find. While this is not the deepest dive, I would recommend starting here:
- Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals: If you believe in Vinnie, it appears that he's on the verge of a breakout. The fact that he got the best of Dylan Cease was enough for me to buy-in. Get him where you can because he may actually have some serious upside for your squad.
- Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals: Own him knowing you aren't going to keep him long. But while he's locked in, he's going to give you all-star quality contributions. It could last a week, or a month, but it doesn't matter: ride the wave.
- Super sleeper: Darick Hall, DH, Phillies: If you can survive the fact that he will be platooned and only have "Utility" eligibility, he is very likely the best bat you can find on the waiver wire. Hall was promoted on the premise that he could hit and he has yet to disappoint. The only disappointing part of his profile is that he doesn't play every day, but that's it. The guy hit and he will for you, too.